The research
Overview
This working paper traces a scenario-based transmission chain from disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz through oil prices, inflation expectations, monetary policy and the cost of financing AI infrastructure. It also considers liquidity, Treasury issuance, siting and resilience. The geopolitical scenarios are not assertions that a conflict has occurred, and reported market commentary is distinguished from verified quotations. Oracle is used as an illustration of financing exposure, rather than proof of the proposed causal mechanism. The study is a companion to the finance and technology manuscripts.
Inside the research
- 01
Builds a scenario chain from geopolitical oil risk to inflation, policy rates and the risk-free component of borrowing costs.
- 02
Examines competition for capital between sovereign issuance, AI infrastructure builders and other borrowers.
- 03
Keeps scenario analysis, reported commentary and firm-level illustrations distinct from verified events or causal evidence.